Monday 30 June, 2014

With 2014 now more than half over, it seems like a good time to look ahead to next year.  The consensus S&P 500 earnings estimate for 2015, as computed by FactSet, is $133.  That results in a forward P/E ratio of just less than 15x. Relative to the index’s long-term historical average, which is in the mid-teens, the current valuation level suggests to us neither unusual opportunity nor risk.  Given that, why is there so much talk about the market being overvalued?

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